联想控股2024年有望扭亏为盈
——基于AI驱动的战略转型与全球供应链优化
撰写：李星
近日，联想控股（03396.HK）发布正面盈利预告，预期集团2024年度净利润介乎亏损约人民币8亿元至盈利约人民币3亿元，2023年公司亏损38.74亿元。
一、盈利分析：AI推动业绩改善
对于盈利能力的改善，联想控股在公告中阐述的重要一点是，产业运营板块的附属公司联想集团业绩同比大幅增长。
业绩修复的核心动能：硬核科技驱动的产业升级
根据联想集团2024/25财年三季报，三大业务线均呈现强劲复苏态势：
PC业务：全球市场份额逆势攀升至24.3%，与第二名差距扩大5个百分点，创近三年营收峰值188亿美元；
智能设备业务：收入同比增长11%，服务器业务增速达27%，基础设施服务合同额突破10亿美元；
移动业务：拉美市场出货量跃居第一，新兴市场营收占比提升至41%。
值得关注的是，供应链智能化改造贡献了超30%的成本降幅。通过部署高通、英伟达AIPC端侧大模型，零配件采购周期缩短20%，库存周转率同比提升35%，直接带动毛利率回升至19.8%（2023年为16.5%）。
二、联想控股的AI转型：独特的"金字塔架构"
底层技术夯实：联合寒武纪、燧原等国产芯片企业研发专用AI加速器，算力成本降低40%；
模型层突破：自研天禧AS系统集成DeepSeek大模型，订单交付周期压缩40%；
应用层落地：在工业质检、智慧供应链等场景实现97%的AI渗透率，海柔创新仓储机器人部署量突破2万台。
据内部测算，AI技术投入已产生年均12亿元的降本增效，且被投企业估值修复带动亏损收窄超5亿元。这种"技术投资-生态孵化-反哺主业"的正向循环，使其在IDC《2024全球AI支出预测》中位列中国企业AI技术成熟度榜首。
三、全球化2.0：地缘风险下的柔性供应链重构
面对国际政治博弈，联想构建了"双循环+区域枢纽"的供应体系：
北美市场：墨西哥工厂产能爬升至年产500万台，本地化交付周期缩短45%；
东南亚市场：越南基地投产第二阶段，PC产能提升至年产800万台；
欧洲市场：通过斯图加特研发中心与本地供应商协作，5G/Wi-Fi7产品交付周期优化30%。
这种"近岸制造+数字化供应链"模式，使其ESG评级从BB升至A级，成功应对欧盟碳关税等合规挑战。
四、国际展会的技术风向标：供应链战略的具象化演进
2025年初CES与MWC两大科技盛会上，联想展出的创新产品与技术路线图，实质是其供应链智能化转型的阶段性成果展示：
战略纵深解读：
技术融合：ActionAssistant动作模型将自然语言指令转化效率提升5倍，推动供应链决策智能化
区域布局：墨西哥、越南新建产能，规避地缘风险，5G/Wi-Fi7产品本地化交付周期缩短45%。
绿色转型：亚冬会设备租赁方案践行DaaS模式，设备复用率达80%，碳排放强度下降28%。
五、穿越周期的挑战：技术落地与全球化博弈
尽管基本面出现明显改善，但三个结构性矛盾仍需警惕：
技术经济学悖论：AIPC端侧大模型算力成本占售价15%-20%，用户教育周期可能抑制换机需求。
地缘剪刀差：中国70%产能VS美国30%核心元器件供应，技术脱钩风险导致供应链成本波动加剧。
ESG合规压力：欧盟碳关税倒逼供应链改造，新能源物流车队建设需投入年均8亿元。
六、价值重估：从成本中心到智能枢纽
当全球PC出货量增速放缓至2.3%（IDC2024Q3数据），联想控股的盈利反转证明：供应链的智能化重构正在创造新型竞争优势。其价值重构路径呈现三大特征：
数据资产化：实时供应链数据资产估值已达净资产的18%
网络效应显现：模块化生态吸引超过200家开发者入驻，生态协同收入占比提升至9%
抗周期能力：工业自动化解决方案营收同比增长47%，对冲消费电子市场波动
在"端-边-云-网-智"的AI技术架构下，联想控股的供应链变革也已进入深水区。这场以技术驱动的效率革命，不仅关乎财务报表的数字游戏，更是中国科技企业全球化突围的典型样本。当3nm芯片与柔性显示屏遇上产业互联网，供应链的价值维度正在被彻底重构——这或许才是联想穿越周期迷雾的真正底气。
Lenovo HoldingsPoised to Turn Profitable in 2024— An AI-DrivenStrategic Transformation and Global Supply Chain Optimization
Author By Lucien
Recently, LenovoHoldings (03396.HK) issued an upbeat earnings forecast, expecting thegroup’s net profit for fiscal 2024 to range from a loss ofapproximately RMB 800 million to a profit of about RMB 300 million.This is a marked turnaround from the RMB 3.874 billion loss recordedin 2023.
I. ProfitabilityAnalysis: AI Drives Performance Improvement
Regarding theimprovement in profitability, Lenovo Holdings emphasized in itsannouncement that its subsidiary, Lenovo Group—part of itsindustrial operations segment—recorded a significantyear-on-year performance increase.
The Core DrivingForce Behind Performance Recovery:Industry Upgrading Powered byCutting-Edge Technology
According to LenovoGroup’s Q3 report for fiscal year 2024/25, all three majorbusiness lines are experiencing a robust recovery:
PC Business: Global market share climbed against the trend to 24.3%, widening the gap with the second-ranked competitor by 5 percentage points and achieving a nearly three-year revenue peak of USD 18.8 billion.
Smart Device Business: Revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, with the server segment growing by 27% and infrastructure service contracts surpassing USD 1 billion.
Mobile Business: In the Latin American market, shipment volumes surged to the top position, while the revenue share from emerging markets increased to 41%.
It is alsonoteworthy that the intelligent transformation of the supply chaincontributed to over a 30% reduction in costs. By deploying edge-sidelarge models from Qualcomm and NVIDIA AIPC, the procurement cycle forspare parts was shortened by 20%, and the inventory turnover rateimproved by 35% year-on-year, directly driving the gross margin up to19.8% (from 16.5% in 2023).
II. LenovoHoldings’ AI Transformation: The Unique “PyramidArchitecture”
Solidifying theUnderlying Technology:In collaboration with domestic chipcompanies such as Cambricon and Suiyuan, Lenovo has developeddedicated AI accelerators that have reduced computing costs by 40%.
Breakthrough atthe Model Layer:The self-developed Tianxi AS system,integrated with the DeepSeek large model, has compressed the orderdelivery cycle by 40%.
Implementation atthe Application Layer:AI has penetrated 97% ofscenarios—including industrial quality inspection andintelligent supply chain applications—with Haishou Innovationwarehousing robots deployed in excess of 20,000 units.
According tointernal estimates, AI-related investments have generated an annualcost reduction and efficiency gain of RMB 1.2 billion, whilevaluation recovery in invested companies has helped narrow losses byover RMB 500 million. This virtuous cycle of “technologyinvestment – ecosystem incubation – reinvestment in thecore business” has positioned Lenovo at the top of Chineseenterprises in terms of AI technology maturity, according to IDC’s“2024 Global AI Spending Forecast.”
III.Globalization 2.0: Reconstructing a Flexible Supply Chain AmidGeopolitical Risks
In response tointernational political maneuvering, Lenovo has built a supply systembased on a “dual circulation + regional hubs” model:
North American Market: Production capacity at its Mexican factory has risen to 5 million units per year, shortening localized delivery cycles by 45%.
Southeast Asian Market: The second phase of production at its Vietnam base is now operational, boosting PC production capacity to 8 million units annually.
European Market: Collaboration between the Stuttgart R&D center and local suppliers has optimized the delivery cycle for 5G/Wi-Fi7 products by 30%.
This “near-shoremanufacturing + digitalized supply chain” model has improvedLenovo’s ESG rating from BB to A, effectively addressingcompliance challenges such as the EU carbon tariff.
IV. TechnologyTrend Indicators at International Exhibitions: A Concrete Evolutionof the Supply Chain Strategy
At early-2025’sCES and MWC—the two major technology events—Lenovoshowcased innovative products and a technology roadmap thateffectively demonstrated the stage-wise achievements of itsintelligent supply chain transformation. Some key highlights include:
ThinkBook Plus Gen6 Rollable:Features a 14–16.7-inch rollable screen, developed in collaboration with panel supplier BOE.
YOGAPad Pro AI Yuanqi Edition:Equipped with a localized AI engine, where the growing demand for edge computing has spurred an upgrade in the supply chain.
MagicBay Ecosystem:Incorporates a modular secondary screen design, with standardized components reducing production costs by 30%.
In-DepthStrategic Analysis:
Technology Integration:The ActionAssistant motion model boosts the efficiency of converting natural language commands by 5 times, thereby enhancing intelligent decision-making in the supply chain.
Regional Layout:The addition of new production capacities in Mexico and Vietnam helps mitigate geopolitical risks, shortening localized delivery cycles for 5G/Wi-Fi7 products by 45%.
Green Transformation:The equipment leasing solution deployed at the Asian Winter Games, based on a DaaS (Device as a Service) model, has achieved an 80% equipment reuse rate and a 28% reduction in carbon emission intensity.
V. ChallengesAcross Cycles: Technology Implementation and Globalization Contest
Despite significantimprovements in fundamentals, three structural challenges remain tobe watched:
The Techno-Economics Paradox:The computing cost for AIPC edge models accounts for 15%–20% of the selling price, and the lengthy user education cycle may dampen demand for device replacement.
The Geopolitical Scissors Effect:With 70% of production capacity in China versus 30% of core component supplies sourced from the United States, the risk of technological decoupling could exacerbate supply chain cost fluctuations.
ESG Compliance Pressure:The EU carbon tariff is compelling a revamp of the supply chain, while establishing a new energy logistics fleet requires an annual investment of RMB 800 million.
VI. ValueReassessment: From Cost Center to Intelligent Hub
As global PCshipment growth slows to 2.3% (IDC 2024 Q3 data), the turnaround inLenovo Holdings’ profitability demonstrates that theintelligent reconfiguration of its supply chain is creating a newcompetitive edge. Its value restructuring path is characterized bythree key features:
Data Assetization:The real-time supply chain data assets are now valued at 18% of net assets.
Network Effects:The modular ecosystem has attracted over 200 developers, with collaborative ecosystem revenue rising to 9%.
Counter-Cyclical Capability:Revenue from industrial automation solutions increased by 47% year-on-year, effectively offsetting fluctuations in the consumer electronics market.
Under the“Endpoint–Edge–Cloud–Network–Intelligence”AI technology architecture, Lenovo Holdings’ supply chaintransformation has entered a deep, mature phase. Thistechnology-driven efficiency revolution is not just about the numberson financial statements—it is a prime example of how a Chinesetech enterprise is breaking through on the global stage. When 3nmchips and flexible displays meet the industrial internet, the valuedimensions of the supply chain are being completely redefined—perhapsthe true source of Lenovo’s resilience through cyclicaluncertainties.
