4.25 million units—this figure defines BYD's moment in 2024. With sales driven solely by the Chinese market and new energy vehicles (NEVs), BYD has successfully entered the ranks of the world’s top 10 automakers, an unparalleled achievement in the history of global automotive development.
In 2024, BYD introduced the Honor and Champion edition models, the fifth-generation DM hybrid, the all-new L series, and dual-brand synergy between the Dynasty and Ocean networks. These developments have fueled market expectations for BYD to surpass 5 million units in sales by 2025.
To surpass General Motors in 2025 and become the sixth-largest automaker globally, BYD’s success will hinge on its audacity and execution. However, the momentum and sales volume accumulated before 2025 may be difficult to replicate, necessitating a fresh start.
Since entering the automotive industry in 2007, BYD’s founder, Wang Chuanfu, has aspired to overtake Toyota and become the world’s top automaker by 2025. At this critical juncture, BYD must transform itself to become and surpass Toyota.
In 2023, BYD surpassed FAW-Volkswagen, and in 2024, it overtook Volkswagen China, solidifying its position at the top. However, its competitors are catching up at an accelerated pace.
In 2024, BYD achieved a total passenger car sales volume of 4.2503 million units, representing a 41.1% year-over-year growth. This includes 1.7649 million pure electric vehicles (up 12.08%) and 2.4853 million plug-in hybrid vehicles (up 72.83%), with the latter serving as both a pillar of BYD's 4-million-unit sales and the standout surprise of China's NEV market in 2024.
Chery achieved a total annual sales volume of 2.6039 million units (up 38.4%), with NEV sales at 583,500 units (up 232.7%), accounting for 22% of its total sales. Plug-in hybrids like the C-DM series were the main contributors. Over 80% of the new models launched by Chery’s five brands in 2024 were NEVs, including hits like the Tiggo 8 C-DM, Fengyun T9, Star Era ET, Shan Hai T1, and iCAR V23.
Meanwhile, Geely recorded total sales of 2.1765 million units (up over 32%), with NEV sales reaching 888,200 units (up approximately 92%). Geely Galaxy and Lynk & Co have initially formed a strong plug-in hybrid lineup, while Zeekr is set to introduce new plug-in hybrid models to further drive growth.
Beyond known new models like the Xia, Tang L, and Han L, what else does BYD have planned for 2025, and what are its sales targets?This presents both significant expectations and pressures for the market. 2025 will mark another year of intensive mainstream model launches for BYD, alongside the rollout of new intelligent driving technologies.
Chery has set its 2025 goal to exceed the industry’s average growth rate by 10–20 percentage points. There is speculation that Chery might aim to rival BYD by 2025, supported by its robust presence in four key markets: internal combustion engines and NEVs, as well as domestic and international markets.
Geely was the first mainstream automaker to announce its 2025 goals, aiming for total sales of 2.71 million units (up 25%) and NEV sales of 1.5 million units (up 69%). Geely already raised its targets in 2024, and it is widely believed that the true aim for 2025 is closer to 3 million units.
Given the rapid development of China's NEV market and the product and technology release cycles of traditional automakers like Geely, Chery, and Great Wall, BYD is unlikely to remain the sole leader in the NEV market by 2025. This serves as a stark reminder for all BYD stakeholders to tread carefully.
As new brands and models in the same market segments proliferate, BYD can no longer rely on a single NEV model to guarantee success, nor can it count on the leniency afforded by being the only Chinese automaker in certain niche markets. The competition in the NEV market in 2025 will span technology, products, markets, and brands, and even minor missteps could lead to setbacks.
Meanwhile, the novelty of new players like NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng has started to wear off.It remains to be seen whether their new offerings, such as ONVO and Firefly, Li Auto’s i-series of pure electric vehicles, XPeng’s MONA series, and range-extended electric vehicles, can sustain their momentum in terms of attention and sales over the next decade.
Once companies reach a certain scale, operations become fundamentally different, forcing these brands to make new strategic decisions, potentially introducing more uncertainty into the NEV landscape.
International automakers will also intensify competition in the NEV market starting in 2025, with a wave of collaborative projects coming to fruition. Toyota, for instance, plans to launch three NEV models in partnership with BYD and GAC Group. Volkswagen, meanwhile, is working with XPeng and SAIC on new models that will begin pre-marketing efforts, setting the stage for an unprecedentedly heated NEV market.
Although foreign automakers appear to face their toughest moment in China, their global reach and superior profitability mean that, once they adapt, they could unleash another wave of industry reshuffling. Companies like Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Volkswagen, GM, and Hyundai had already begun deep transformations before 2024, with their results set to surface in 2025. How this will impact both the Chinese and global markets remains to be seen, but BYD, Li Auto, and other Chinese NEV players must be fully prepared.
BYD's leadership in NEVs has extended beyond the Chinese market to overseas markets, and in 2025, it must strive to break Chery’s 22-year record as the top Chinese brand in passenger car exports. Otherwise, its claim to being China’s top automaker will lack full credibility.
In 2024, Chery achieved an export volume of 1.1445 million units (up 21.4%), and its export target for 2025 is expected to reach 1.5 million units, marking a massive scale. Geely, with an export volume of 403,900 units in 2024 (up 53%), is likely aiming to double this figure in 2025.
BYD made significant breakthroughs in its overseas strategy in 2024, with passenger car exports reaching 417,200 units (up 71.9%). Its first wholly-owned overseas factory in Thailand and a joint venture factory in Uzbekistan both commenced production. From expanding market presence and strengthening sales partnerships to ramping up overseas production, international markets are poised to become BYD’s most critical source of sales growth in 2025. This could solidify BYD as a true global automaker.
A potential scenario worth imagining is BYD in 2025 becoming what Chery was in 2024 in overseas markets, while Chery achieves what BYD did domestically. The idea of such a symbolic handover is enough to inspire excitement.
BYD once carried the weight of China’s NEV market on its shoulders, reaping the competitive advantages and market dividends that came with being a pioneer. Now, as it welcomes more competitors, it must confront the challenge of remaining the first choice for consumers.
Before 2024, BYD was almost the sole option for consumers seeking a reliable, practical NEV. However, newer players like Leapmotor, XPeng, and Xiaomi have become mainstream, while traditional automakers like Chery’s Fengyun and Geely’s Galaxy have launched aggressive campaigns. BYD is no longer the only option, nor necessarily the top choice.
In 2025, BYD must address the challenge of its traditional growth models for traffic and sales becoming unsustainable. If the company can recall the challenges and risks it faced in the early days of its NEV journey, it should understand that now is the time to adapt.
When Toyota ascended to become the world’s largest automaker, it faced a near-catastrophic crisis in the North American market. BYD, as China’s leading automaker and the global leader in NEVs, will need to contend with intense domestic competition and a more complex international trade environment. These intertwined factors present challenges that cannot be managed with the strategies of the past.
